2018 Atlantic hurricane season

2018 Atlantic hurricane season
2018 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formed May 25, 2018
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm
Name Alberto
 • Maximum winds 40 mph (65 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure 999 mbar (hPa; 29.5 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions 1
Total storms 1
Hurricanes 0
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
0
Total fatalities None
Total damage None
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season will officially begin on June 1, 2018, and end on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of Subtropical Storm Alberto on May 25, the fourth consecutive year a storm developed before the official start of the season.

Seasonal forecasts[]

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2018 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010[1]) 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
TSR[2] December 7, 2017 15 7 3
CSU[3] April 5, 2018 14 7 3
TSR[4] April 5, 2018 12 6 2
NCSU[5] April 16, 2018 14–18 7–11 3–5
TWC[6] April 19, 2018 13 7 2
NOAA[7] May 24, 2018 10–16 5–9 1–4
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
1 0 0
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017.[8] On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[1]

Pre-season outlooks[]

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7, 2017, which predicted a slightly above-average season in 2018, with a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[2] On April 5, 2018, CSU released its forecast, predicting a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[3] On the same day TSR released its second forecast, predicting a slightly-below average hurricane season, with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, the reduction in both the number and size of storms compared to its first forecast being due to recent anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic.[4] Several days later, on April 16, North Carolina State University released its predictions, forecasting an above-average season, with 14–18 named storms, 7–11 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes.[5] On April 19, The Weather Company released its first forecasts, predicting 2018 to be a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.[6] On May 24, NOAA released their first forecasts, calling for a near to above average season in 2018.[7]

Seasonal summary[]

Saffir–Simpson scale

Systems[]

Subtropical Storm Alberto[]

Subtropical Storm Alberto SS
Current storm status
Subtropical storm (1-min mean)
Alberto 2018-05-25 1835Z.jpg
Satellite image
01L 2018 5day.png
Forecast map
As of: 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) May 26
Location: 23°18′N 85°06′W / 23.3°N 85.1°W / 23.3; -85.1 (Subtropical Storm Alberto) ± 30 nm
About 95 mi (155 km) N of the western tip of Cuba
About 170 mi (275 km) SW of the Dry Tortugas
Sustained winds: 35 kt (40 mph; 65 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 kt (50 mph; 85 km/h)
Pressure: 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg)
Movement: N at 9 kn (13 mph; 20 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A broad area of low pressure formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on May 21, as the result of the interaction between an upper-level low and a weak surface trough.[9] The low drifted slowly westward and then northward through the Caribbean Sea as it gradually organized. By 15:00 UTC on May 25, the strongly sheared low had organized sufficiently to be classified as Subtropical Storm Alberto while situated about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cozumel, Quintana Roo.[10] After remaining nearly stationary for the next day, Alberto began to move northwards.

With formation occurring at 19.3°N, it was the second-furthest south subtropical storm on record, behind Tropical Storm Olga (2007).[11]

Current storm information[]

As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (21:00 UTC) May 26, Subtropical Storm Alberto is located within 30 nautical miles of 23°18′N 85°06′W / 23.3°N 85.1°W / 23.3; -85.1 (Alberto), about 95 miles (155 km) north of the western tip of Cuba or about 170 miles (275 km) southwest of the western tip of the Dry Tortugas. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h), with gusts up to 45 knots (50 mph; 85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg), and the system is moving north at 13 mph (20 km/h). Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Alberto. The storm is expected to strengthen through the Gulf of Mexico [12].

For latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings[]

Tropical Storm Warning
Tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch
Tropical storm conditions possible within 48 hours.
Storm Surge Watch
Life-threatening inundation from storm surge possible within 48 hours.

Storm names[]

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the same list used in the 2012 season, with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy.

  • Alberto (active)
  • Beryl (unused)
  • Chris (unused)
  • Debby (unused)
  • Ernesto (unused)
  • Florence (unused)
  • Gordon (unused)
  • Helene (unused)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Michael (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sara (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects[]

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2018 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs


Alberto May 25 – Present Subtropical storm 40 (65) 999 Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, Gulf Coast of the United States, Florida Minimal None
Season Aggregates
1 systems May 25 – Season ongoing   40 (65) 999 Minimal None  

See also[]

References[]

  1. ^ a b "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2013. 
  2. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (December 7, 2017). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. 
  3. ^ a b CSU External Relations Staff (April 5, 2018). "Slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season predicted by CSU team". Fort Collins, CO. 
  4. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (April 5, 2018). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. 
  5. ^ a b Matthew Burns (April 16, 2018). "NCSU researchers predict active hurricane season". Raleigh, North Carolina: WRAL-TV. 
  6. ^ a b The Weather Channel (April 19, 2018). "Hurricane Outlook Calls for Another Active Hurricane Season". Atlanta, Georgia. 
  7. ^ a b KCBD (May 24, 2018). "NOAA predicts near or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season". 
  8. ^ "Here comes La Nina, El Nino's flip side, but it will be weak". ABC News. November 9, 2017. Retrieved November 25, 2017. 
  9. ^ Eric S. Blake (May 21, 2018). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 25, 2018. 
  10. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 25, 2018). "Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 25, 2018. 
  11. ^ Philip Klotzbach. "Alberto is a subtropical storm". 
  12. ^ "Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory". Retrieved 26 May 2018. 


External links[]